Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019.In the first installment, I took a look at BABIP, and what it can tell you about which pitchers were possibly lucky or unlucky in 2008.
Michael Taylor of Tribe Report did a nice job running with the concept. By taking all the things we know are under a pitchers control (and only those things), we can estimate what a pitchers ERA should have been, all else being equal. It was created by Tom Tango and uses a basic arithmetic formula using Ks, BBs, and HRs: (HR13(BB-IBBHBP)3-K2) IP 3.20. It works quite well and is available at both The Hardball Times and Fangraphs. The Hardball Times has another similar statistic called xFIP, which uses a modified home run total instead of actual home runs. As the semi-accurate cliche goes, pitchers allow fly balls, but hitters turn those fly balls into home runs. Therefore xFIP uses the league-average home run-per-flyball rate combined with each pitchers fly ball rate to estimate how many home runs a pitcher deserved to give up. If tERA is our measure of quality, we next need to measure quantity. Inning pitched is the obviously solution, although I prefer Statcorners expected innings pitched (xIP). Why Because if a pitcher is unlucky and extra balls are falling in for hits, hes getting docked outs and being credited with fewer innings than he deserves. His RAR is (5.75 - 2.64) 9 222 77. That production compares favorably to every position player except Albert Pujols, by the way. The data tab separates out contributions to different teams (thus, CC Sabathia will be listed twice) and the player pivot table allows you to select just the pitchers on any one team. Ivkova slava filmThe team pivot table shows the total value provided by each teams rotations. You can pro-rate the RAR numbers to different innings totals based on 2009 projections. Pretty little liars waploadedOr compute them yourself given whatever ERA and IP projections you want and the RAR formula. Compare their 2008 tERAs to their actual ERAs to see if theyre coming off seasons that were underrated or overrated. Remember, their park is one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the majors, and their fielders were below average by thirty runs according to UZR. For example, some pitchers allow groundballs that are easier to find than other pitchers. And some pitchers better adapt to situations and can change their approach when needed. The effect of these other things are generally small, but they can become significant at the etremes. The next stage of research will probably be aimed at picking apart these issues.
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